Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
