Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Propels Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

It was two months in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.

Per Opta, in only two games have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.