A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
